{"id":21229,"date":"2020-01-08T14:10:56","date_gmt":"2020-01-08T14:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/?p=21229"},"modified":"2022-02-28T08:09:39","modified_gmt":"2022-02-28T08:09:39","slug":"how-have-stock-markets-performed-during-times-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/stock-markets\/how-have-stock-markets-performed-during-times-of-war\/","title":{"rendered":"How have stock markets performed during times of war?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Stocks will go down if, and when, there is a long war right? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least that is what many people worry about, given the situation with Iran and the US right now.  That is what many believe, but is it true? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217; s look at a long- period of time &#8211; over 90-100 years &#8211; and see if wars have had an impact on the natural trend markets were having before the outbreak of wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What we can see is little or no long-term correlation between markets and wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, sometimes markets fall, and sometimes they rise, during wars, and often the rises or falls has more to do with other factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Some recent examples include:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>During the few years after the Iraq War, markets increased considerably  <\/li><li>In comparison, after 9\/11 and panic about a possible war with Afghanistan, markets declined, before recovering <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>How about a wider sample, which the CFA institute looked at?  We get the following results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"583\" src=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21235\" srcset=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-2.png 975w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-2-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-2-768x459.png 768w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-2-81x48.png 81w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In reality though, few sane people think the Iraq war contributed towards the 2008-2009 crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many articles out there try to suggest wars have affected markets. For example, I read one article which claimed that &#8220;markets fell during the Iraq War&#8221; and used a 8 year chart to &#8220;prove&#8221; this point:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"740\" height=\"552\" src=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-21234\" srcset=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-1.png 740w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-1-300x224.png 300w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/a1-1-81x60.png 81w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This doesn&#8217;t mean that wars are good, of course, merely that they seldom have affected markets short-term and have never affected them many decades after the event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, a nuclear war would be a different matter.  Stock markets wouldn&#8217;t exist&#8230;..but nor would we so I wouldn&#8217;t worry about it!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets and wars. Could a war with Iran affect markets?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21230,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10166176115445471_100883565069113":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[11558],"tags":[82],"class_list":["post-21229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-markets","tag-stock-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21229","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21229\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}