{"id":33878,"date":"2022-01-24T08:07:08","date_gmt":"2022-01-24T08:07:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/?p=33878"},"modified":"2024-05-16T07:40:52","modified_gmt":"2024-05-16T07:40:52","slug":"what-can-we-expect-from-financial-markets-in-2022-3-things-to-look-out-for","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/stock-markets\/what-can-we-expect-from-financial-markets-in-2022-3-things-to-look-out-for\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 podemos esperar de los mercados financieros en 2022? 3 cosas a tener en cuenta"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What can we expect from financial markets in 2022?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, nobody can predict the future, but having been doing this for quite some time, I can sense some likely outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Markets to beat bonds <\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Stock markets are likely to beat bonds, cash, and most other investments in 2022, even if volatility increases. A big 20%-30% year is unlikely, but a possibility.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I agree with the Shark Tank judge Kevin O\u2019Leary,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=koPnJjzgeJc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&nbsp;who I interviewed at the 2021 client event<\/a>, and his assessment on the video below \u2013 an 8%-9.5% yearly increase is the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What wouldn\u2019t surprise me is if some non-US markets, such European stock markets, outperform.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"BIGGEST Opportunity For Investors in 2022 | Yahoo Finance\" width=\"800\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Qhi7cwW1_Es?start=701&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What wouldn&#8217;t surprise me is if some non-US markets, such as some in Europe, outperform. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2. DIY investors will lose out <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Human beings are a curious bunch.  There is an expression in the UK &#8220;there is naught stranger than folk&#8221; which basically means that people can often behave oddly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has always been the case in investing but has become more extreme in the age of social media and the recent market swings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In February and March 2020, most people were terrified to invest after the stock market crash.  Numerous studies showed that at least 35% of people even panicked and sold their existing holdings during the crisis.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then things changed. The markets bounced back.  Many do-it-yourself (DIY) investors were making loads of money with Tesla, tech stocks, Bitcoin, etc.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We were back in the 1990s all over again when many non-experts thought they could outsmart the market. That has started to change recently. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I mentioned in the video below, the average investor in Cathy Wood&#8217;s ARK fund has lost money, despite the stellar performance of the fund:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"The problem with &quot;doing your own research&quot; - Cathie Wood&#039;s ARK ETF - most investors have lost money!\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3CgJ7B9aGLo?start=13&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason is simple. So many people pilled in during the top.  Countless people have sold out during the crash, even though the fund is still up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If 2022 is an 8%, 9%, or 10% year for many of the major stock markets, but with heightened volatility, I would expect many investors will receive less than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Countless might even leave the market during corrections, such as the one we are currently in (some stock markets are down 10% on the year until January 24 after hitting all-time highs late last year).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is nothing new, and explains the following long-term trend:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/saupload_investor.ret_.21sep2017.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-33881\" width=\"558\" height=\"339\" srcset=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/saupload_investor.ret_.21sep2017.png 558w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/saupload_investor.ret_.21sep2017-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/saupload_investor.ret_.21sep2017-81x49.png 81w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 558px) 100vw, 558px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Source: Capitalspectator.com<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What is more, investors haven\u2019t been fully tested since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Since that meltdown, there have been numerous corrections of 10%, 20%, and even 25%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There was one huge market fall of 50%, which was comparable to the financial crisis, but the speed of falling and recovering was much faster than during 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, the 50% falls were sudden, but the markets recovered in months, whereas it took them a couple of years to recover from the crisis thirteen years ago.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next time markets crash, and don&#8217;t recover for a few years, will once again see many DIY investors hitting the self-destruct button via panic selling and refusing to add more money during the turbulence. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where getting advice can really pay off.  None of my clients panic sold during 2020.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3. A search for alternative investments <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cash still pays below inflation, which is surging across much of the world right now. Bonds pay little as well. If markets are turbulent this year, even if they end up performing reasonably well, there will be a search for alternative assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are good reasons to search for alternative assets such as REITs and private equity. They add diversification to accounts and aren\u2019t correlated to stock markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have certainly see an increase in demand from my clients for such offerings, so I have started a <a href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/expats\/want-to-join-my-private-equity-waitlist\/\">wait-list for a new private equity fund. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this, it makes sense for people to keep allocations into alternative assets at sensible levels.  Putting 50% of your wealth into riskier projects makes no sense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00bfLe duele la indecisi\u00f3n financiera? \u00bfQuiere invertir con Adam?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/become-adams-client\/\">Convi\u00e9rtase en mi cliente<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/good-match-quiz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Realice el cuestionario de elegibilidad de clientes<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/contact\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">P\u00f3ngase en contacto con<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Adam es un autor reconocido internacionalmente en temas financieros, con m\u00e1s de 830 millones de respuestas en Quora, un libro muy vendido en Amazon y colaborador de Forbes.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00bfQu\u00e9 podemos esperar de los mercados financieros en 2022?  3 cosas a tener en cuenta. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":33882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10166176115445471_100883565069113":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[11558],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33878"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33878\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86707,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33878\/revisions\/86707"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/33882"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}