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- Los expertos afirman que la libra esterlina pronto se situar\u00e1 por debajo del d\u00f3lar, ya que \u00faltimamente estamos asistiendo a una ca\u00edda continua de la libra esterlina. \u00bfDeber\u00eda empezar a ahorrar en d\u00f3lares?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- What should you do as an investor to prepare for a recession?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Si quieres que responda a alguna pregunta en Quora o YouTube, o est\u00e1s buscando invertir, no dudes en p\u00f3ngase en contacto conmigo<\/a>, correo electr\u00f3nico (advice@adamfayed.com) o utiliza la funci\u00f3n de WhatsApp que aparece a continuaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Es posible que algunos de los enlaces y v\u00eddeos a los que se hace referencia s\u00f3lo est\u00e9n disponibles en las respuestas originales. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fuente de todas las respuestas: p\u00e1gina Quora de Adam Fayed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Experts say that the UK economy is dwindling and that the pound will soon go below the dollar as we have recently been seeing the continuous decline in the GBP. Should I start saving in USD instead?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The Pound Sterling, Euro, Japanese Yen and many other currencies are plummeting against the USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As you say, this has resulted in many people predicting that the GBP will fall to 0.90 or even 0.85 against the USD, after it hit 1:03 recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This depreciation has been going on for years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Nobody can predict, with certainty, where currencies will go. What we do know is that keeping too much money in cash is risky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you invest in an asset and it falls, it isn\u2019t the end of the world. Even if somebody purchased say the S&P500 one day before a huge crash, you just need to wait a few years for a recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With cash and currencies, you may never get that recovery. Will the Pound ever recover to 2:1 against the USD – the rate it hit in 2007? Maybe, but there is a possibility it won\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Having said that, that doesn\u2019t mean you need to directly buy USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the video below I look at VOO vs VUSA. VOO = investing in the S&P500 in USD, and VUSA is investing in the S&P500 in GBP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The returns are pretty much identical, because you are investing in the underlying asset and not the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, if you convert to USD and invest, your returns won\u2019t be any different to if you invest in GBP into international markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In fact, they will be marginally lower, as you will need to pay a currency conversion fee. Therefore, if you want to hedge against currency falls, it is better to just invest in Pounds, but in the international markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The exception is for British expats vivir en el extranjero<\/a>, who should consider USD-based investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What should you do as an investor to prepare for a recession?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
In 4\u20135 steps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Firstly, Stop listening to the media. Remember that the media has called about ten of the last two recessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, don\u2019t think it is easy to call when a recession will start and end. This quote from the Forbes owner sums it up:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
If you start making decisions on long-term fundamentals, and stop caring about short-term risks and volatility, the better your long-term investing outcomes are likely to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then, have a sensible amount of cash. Most people do need three to six months of emergency cash in case of emergencies, but having too much savings doesn\u2019t make sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cash in the bank loses to inflation and other assets long-term. If we extended the graph below to over fifty years, the results would be even more extreme:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Cash is just less volatile which makes people feel more comfortable, but that doesn\u2019t mean it is safer. The collapse and depreciation of various currencies against the USD in recent times illustrates this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then you have the issue about how you are using cash to begin with. A recession is a good time to really analyze some of the silly purchases we all make.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of my friends was recently telling me that he only realized how much he was spending on subscriptions after he really analyzed his different bank accounts recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Another thing he was overspending on was interest payments. Credit cards can cost 18% or more per annum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even most of the best performing long-term investments in the world don\u2019t consistently generate that for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, paying off any high-interest bearing credit card debt makes sense, before you start investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That doesn\u2019t mean every debt is bad. Certain kinds of debts for business investment can make a lot of sense for business owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is more likely to make sense when everybody else, in other words competitors, are feeling pessimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This brings us back to one of Warren Buffett\u2019s famous quotes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Look at the 2020 recession. In February and March, stocks crashed. Costs for digital adverts online also plummeted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those that got in benefited at discounted prices. People who decided to \u201cwait and see\u201d didn\u2019t see the rebound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Remember the 2008 recession created the most millionaires in history than in any other five-year period. Historically, recessions create more multi-millionaires than \u201cnormal\u201d times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is because change creates opportunity. So, focus on the opportunity that a recession brings, and not just the threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Is a net worth of 1.5 million good?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
It depends on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Where you live<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Your cost of living<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Your age<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- How liquid the money is<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Consider this simple example. Let’s say you have $1.5m in the bottom half of the world\u2019s cheapest countries, and you are 30 or 40.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In which case, with a bit of planning, you could live off your investments forever, without needing to be ultra frugal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That kind of portfolio could generate an income which is three, four or even six times higher than the average income for those around you, and give you a good standard of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In comparison, if you are living in one of the most expensive parts of the US, $1.5m won\u2019t last you in retirement, if you don\u2019t have a pension or other assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This graphic, which was made a few years ago now, shows that $1m might last you for 17 years or less in some US states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Even internally in our own countries, there are massive differences in terms of cost of living.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, just as we have risk-adjusted returns in investing, we should factor in \u201cage and location adjusted\u201d factors when looking at net worth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then there is liquidity. Having $1.5m in say ETFs or funds, isn\u2019t the same thing as having $1.5m in a house or especially a private business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In some parts of the world, it can take months or even years to sell a house, and getting a buyer for a private business can take longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is one reason why liquid net worth is often more important than pure net worth, especially when factoring in risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How easily your assets can be turned into cash is an important variable. If we looked at things in that way, even lists such as Forbes would look completely different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That doesn\u2019t mean that all your assets need to be in liquid, or relatively liquid, instruments. Merely, it shows the importance of liquidity when reducing risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I have met some people with net worths of over $10m, $20m, who have struggled if they have an emergency, due to liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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