{"id":52865,"date":"2023-01-03T16:14:14","date_gmt":"2023-01-03T16:14:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/?p=52865"},"modified":"2024-02-23T05:28:27","modified_gmt":"2024-02-23T05:28:27","slug":"what-are-your-outlooks-for-the-global-economy-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/economics\/what-are-your-outlooks-for-the-global-economy-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"What are your outlooks for the global economy in 2023?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Escribo a menudo en Quora.com, donde soy el escritor m\u00e1s visto sobre temas financieros, con m\u00e1s de 422,4 millones de visitas en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>En las respuestas que figuran a continuaci\u00f3n me he centrado en los siguientes temas y cuestiones<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>What are your outlooks for the global economy in 2023?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How unrealistic are most people who start a business and why?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What caused Ghana to default on its external debts?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Si quieres que responda a alguna pregunta en Quora o YouTube, o est\u00e1s buscando invertir, no dudes en<a href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/#contact-me\">&nbsp;p\u00f3ngase en contacto conmigo<\/a>, correo electr\u00f3nico (advice@adamfayed.com) o utiliza la funci\u00f3n de WhatsApp que aparece a continuaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Es posible que algunos de los enlaces y v\u00eddeos a los que se hace referencia s\u00f3lo est\u00e9n disponibles en las respuestas originales.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fuente de todas las respuestas: p\u00e1gina Quora de Adam Fayed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.quora.com\/How-unrealistic-are-most-people-who-start-a-business-and-why\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What are your outlooks for the global economy in 2023?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.cf2.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-0d7f3a11872351d6aad5fbca5fb156ac-lq\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Anybody who has been alive for any decent period of time, should have worker out a basic fact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic forecasts are seldom accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Let\u2019s look at some recent misses<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Few economists saw the 2008 crisis coming. The late Queen famously asked why so few professional economists saw it coming.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Few people saw the rebound of the Irish economy in 2012\u20132013<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most thought the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would keep doing well. Only India is now growing fast.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Most economists are pessimistic about 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the best pieces of analysis was \u2018a bad year for the economy, a better one for the stock markets\u2019, from JP Morgan.<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/gb\/en\/asset-management\/institutional\/insights\/market-insights\/investment-outlook\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I suspect this analysis will prove relatively correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, bonds and stocks will have a good year compared to 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many countries will go into recession or low growth and things will look a bit more optimistic by New Year 2023 because inflation will have fallen by then, and many countries will have a better 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BUT take forecasts with a pinch of salt. There are too many unknown unknowns and known unknowns to forecast the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We would all be trillionaires if we could&nbsp;<strong>consistently<\/strong>&nbsp;predict the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Best to just stick to long-term business and investing plans, and be greedy when others are fearful and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If things get bad in 2023 or any year, that brings about risk but also many opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More new millionaires are created during recessions than in regular times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How unrealistic are most people who start a business and why?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Depende.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some people are very realistic. They start a business they have experience in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most successful businesses are like this. A doctor who gets good at his\/her job, and starts their own clinic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Or a legal advisor who starts their own practice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Others want to start a lifestyle business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Examples of this include:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Those who are semi-retired who become paid hourly consultants. This is more akin to being self-employed<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Starting a cafe or restaurant<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Doing some sort of side gig online<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Most people who start lifestyle businesses, and those who start businesses with experience in the domain, are very realistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, some people are \u201coverly\u201d realistic. Ask any business owner who has succeeded in a big way what their biggest regrets are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By succeed in a big way, I don\u2019t just mean somebody who has made billions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I mean even somebody who is inside the top 1% in their industry &#8211; for example somebody earning 500k after tax on a consistent basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Almost everybody says they wish they had gone all in sooner, set their sights higher or taken more risks &#8211; especially during moments like recessions which presents as many opportunities as risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the other end of the spectrum, is people who are very unrealistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They watch people like Andrew Tate make millions online:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.cf2.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-935533836944d7a8499439f2c7febae4-lq\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Or for that matter, some influencer who is less controversial and isn\u2019t accused of committing crimes, also making millions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, often they think it is easy to make loads of money in business from being good looking or controversial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It isn\u2019t. If somebody is easy, it won\u2019t be easy for long, as others copy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The middle ground is to be a \u201crealistic dreamer\u201d, and starting thinking big&nbsp;<strong>after<\/strong>&nbsp;you start getting sone traction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thinking big when you haven\u2019t even made your first $1 in business is often not a good sign, with a few exceptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You see it all the time on business shows like Dragons Den and Shark Tank. People who have huge valuations based on a good idea, and no revenues or profits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.quora.com\/What-caused-Ghana-to-default-on-its-external-debts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What caused Ghana to default on its external debts?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.cf2.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-385e910223e6171ec227551082b2bc5e-lq\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The biggest reasons is, stating the obvious, that the debt isn\u2019t sustainable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Too much of the budget is being used to service the debt, which has resulted in inflation shooting up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>We also have to remember that:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The IMF has said that debt restructuring is needing as part of a bailout<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The local currency has been depreciating for years, showing that the market didn\u2019t have confidence in the economic situation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Too much debt is not in its own currency. If a country even has 200% debt-to-gdp, that isn\u2019t always a problem if a country has its own currency, as it can always push up inflation marginally to repay. If your debt is in another currency, that isn\u2019t the same.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of the last point, we have to remember that many debt crisis in history have been caused by having too much debt in foreign currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Look at the Latin American debt crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To quote wikipedia: \u201cThe Latin American debt crisis was a financial crisis that originated in the early 1980s, often known as La D\u00e9cada Perdida, when Latin American countries reached a point where their foreign debt exceeded their earning power, and they were not able to repay it&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The East Asia Financial Crisis in the late 1990s was also partly caused by too much external, foreign currency, debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thailand couldn\u2019t defend the Thai Bhat, which resulted in contagion around the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a lot of talk about Japanese, American, Chinese, British and European debt, but at least these jurisdictions have the vast majority of debt in the local country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With interest rates increasing, more countries could go in Ghana\u2019s direction in 2023, before interest rates stabilize and probably fall, once inflation starts to decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People should seek USD-alternatives to protect themselves, because nobody knows who \u201cthe next Ghana\u201d will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are already seeing incredibly weak currencies in Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Argentina and countless other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am not saying there will be an East Asian or Latin American debt crisis in emerging markets in 2023 or 2024, as nobody can predict that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The risks are merely higher than they have been for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u00bfLe duele la indecisi\u00f3n financiera? \u00bfQuiere invertir con Adam?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"604\" src=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/smile-beige-jacket-4-1024x604-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41190\" srcset=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/smile-beige-jacket-4-1024x604-2.png 1024w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/smile-beige-jacket-4-1024x604-2-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/smile-beige-jacket-4-1024x604-2-768x453.png 768w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/smile-beige-jacket-4-1024x604-2-81x48.png 81w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/become-adams-client\/\">Convi\u00e9rtase en mi cliente<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/good-match-quiz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Realice el cuestionario de elegibilidad de clientes<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/contact\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">P\u00f3ngase en contacto con<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Adam es un autor reconocido internacionalmente en temas financieros, con m\u00e1s de 830 millones de respuestas en Quora, un libro muy vendido en Amazon y colaborador de Forbes.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What are your outlooks for the global economy in 2023?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":64426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10166176115445471_100883565069113":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[31342],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52865"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80795,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52865\/revisions\/80795"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}