{"id":57,"date":"2018-05-22T05:29:45","date_gmt":"2018-05-22T05:29:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/?p=57"},"modified":"2025-03-16T14:46:29","modified_gmt":"2025-03-16T14:46:29","slug":"stock-picking-vs-index-funds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/investment-options\/stock-picking-vs-index-funds\/","title":{"rendered":"Selecci\u00f3n de valores frente a fondos indexados: \u00bfEs racional elegir valores?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Stock picking means making an active choice in terms of which individual stocks should be added to your portfolio. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considera algo por un momento.\u00a0 <\/span>Si usted stock pick<\/a> (individual stocks) rather than buying funds, you have an 80%+ chance of not beating the market over a 5 year period. That goes down to about 98%+ over a 40 year + investment career.\u00a0 <\/span>Hay muchas razones para ello.\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si desea invertir como expatriado o particular con un elevado patrimonio neto, que es en lo que estoy especializado, puede enviarme un correo electr\u00f3nico (advice@adamfayed.com) o WhatsApp (+44-7393-450-837).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esto incluye si busca una segunda opini\u00f3n o inversiones alternativas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Algunos de los hechos pueden cambiar desde el momento de la redacci\u00f3n, y nada de lo aqu\u00ed escrito constituye asesoramiento financiero, jur\u00eddico, fiscal o de cualquier tipo, ni una invitaci\u00f3n a invertir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incluso los peque\u00f1os gastos de compraventa se acumulan.\u00a0 <\/span>Good short-term returns, moreover, increase egos, and complacency<\/a> comes into play. One of the biggest reasons is that the information is all there transparently, so there is no such thing as a free lunch. Remember, all the information about companies is publicly available and there are people whose job it is to look at this information and weight the pros and cons of all that information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tomemos como ejemplo la tecnolog\u00eda.  <\/span>En la d\u00e9cada de 1990, los frikis de la inform\u00e1tica que predijeron correctamente el futuro podr\u00edan haber ganado mucho dinero. Sin duda, los primeros inversores en Facebook o Amazon lo hicieron.  <\/span>Sin embargo, habr\u00eda sido una locura invertir un porcentaje significativo de su patrimonio en Amazon en 1995. Un inversor racional s\u00f3lo puede tomar decisiones bas\u00e1ndose en la informaci\u00f3n de que dispone en ese momento.  <\/span>Predicting the future is almost impossible and those who get it right once, probably won\u2019t next time. This is something cryptocurrency advocates should know too well, considering many believed in hyperinflation and a depression as bad as the Great Depression 5-10 years ago. <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"stock<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There are so many unknown unknowns and know unknowns for all companies, and especially start-ups. If Amazon\u2019s CEO would have died 20 years ago, or there would have been a huge scandal or employees would have joined a competitor on mass, the company would never have succeeded.  <\/span>Qui\u00e9n sabe, tal vez Amazon estuvo a punto de quebrar antes de revelar p\u00fablicamente la informaci\u00f3n que s\u00f3lo se convierte en un requisito legal una vez que se hace p\u00fablica.  <\/span>Y lo que es m\u00e1s, a pesar de que, por t\u00e9rmino medio, la tecnolog\u00eda ha obtenido buenos resultados en los \u00faltimos 20 a\u00f1os, la mayor\u00eda de las empresas tecnol\u00f3gicas han quebrado.  <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comprar el mercado y una amplia cesta de empresas no es especular.  <\/span>Es s\u00f3lo suponer que, como siempre, a largo plazo, las 100-200-300 empresas m\u00e1s grandes de EE.UU. o de cualquier otro pa\u00eds valdr\u00e1n m\u00e1s dinero dentro de 10-20-30 a\u00f1os que hoy.  <\/span>As\u00ed que, independientemente de si en 2050 la mayor parte del S&P son servicios financieros, derecho, bienes de consumo o incluso empresas de miner\u00eda de bitcoins (\u00a1aunque lo dudo!), un inversor que compre el mercado obtendr\u00e1 beneficios.  <\/span>Simplemente no se beneficiar\u00e1n tanto como alguien que invierte 100% de su riqueza en la \u00fanica moneda que bate al mercado.  <\/span>One of the reasons the average DIY investors only makes on average 4%-5% per year when markets have gone up (historic average) 10% per year, is because they assume they are smarter than others due to `research`.  <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Es propio de la naturaleza humana creerse m\u00e1s listo que la media, pero la evidencia acad\u00e9mica es clara: un mayor conocimiento no le permitir\u00e1 batir sistem\u00e1ticamente la rentabilidad media del mercado.  <\/span>Es casi seguro que algunos a\u00f1os batir\u00e1 al mercado, pero por t\u00e9rmino medio, perder\u00e1 a largo plazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This whole mania around cryptocurrency is another case in point.  <\/span>The price could go up or down, but very few people (or any) are buying `a basket of coins` which tracks the average price of the market.  <\/span>Instead they tend to buy 1, 2 or a maximum of 3 coins. This means, that even if the market increases in the future, many people in the market are engaging in something akin to stock picking.  <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s say somebody owns one coin, and that coin is implicated a political scandal after a dictator stashes and it is subsequently outlawed across numerous countries, then the price will go down.  <\/span>Not to mention, let us imagine for a second the coins become a victim of their own success, they do become a threat to the state\u2019s ability to raise revenue, and therefore becomes a libertarian\u2019s dream.  <\/span>State regulation will hammer the price.  <\/span>I have heard some people say the ridiculous phrase that `regulation can\u2019t affect the price`.  <\/span>That is silly.  <\/span>Let\u2019s give an extreme example now.  <\/span>Let\u2019s say in 2019 there is a terrorist attack funded by some of the coins, as terrorists use it to fund themselves.  <\/span>If there is a popular backlash and the coins are banned globally or even just in the OECD, the price could go close to $0.  <\/span>Every time a new regulation is announced, the price goes down.  It could be made an illegal offence to own or trade any coin tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, in an extreme event.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The price of bitcoin and other coins may skyrocket, but that doesn\u2019t mean that an investor is irrational to say no to it in 2018.  It is pure speculation and at best should represent 5% of a portfolio if somebody can\u2019t resist the temptation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfLe duele la indecisi\u00f3n financiera? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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Convi\u00e9rtase en mi cliente<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Realice el cuestionario de elegibilidad de clientes<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n
P\u00f3ngase en contacto con<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Adam es un autor reconocido internacionalmente en temas financieros, con m\u00e1s de 830 millones de respuestas en Quora, un libro muy vendido en Amazon y colaborador de Forbes.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Selecci\u00f3n de valores frente a fondos indexados: \u00bfqu\u00e9 es mejor?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":52,"featured_media":20399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10166176115445471_100883565069113":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[11798],"tags":[82],"class_list":["post-57","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-options","tag-stock-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/52"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115208,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57\/revisions\/115208"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}