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- What are the first steps when looking for investment?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Are there any benefits of being an expat in countries with lower taxes than where you live currently?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- How can I become an outlier in life?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- What are some key factors that contribute to the widening wealth gap in society?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- What is the \u20ac3.5 billion Wirecard scam?<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- What do you think of Michael Burry’s prediction about hyperinflation?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Si quieres que responda a alguna pregunta en Quora o YouTube, o est\u00e1s buscando invertir, no dudes en p\u00f3ngase en contacto conmigo<\/a>, correo electr\u00f3nico (advice@adamfayed.com) o utiliza la funci\u00f3n de WhatsApp que aparece a continuaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Es posible que algunos de los enlaces y v\u00eddeos a los que se hace referencia s\u00f3lo est\u00e9n disponibles en las respuestas originales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Are there any benefits of being an expat in countries with lower taxes than where you live currently?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Of course, there is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you pay fewer taxes, you have more to save and invest, assuming the cost of living doesn\u2019t outweigh the benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That means:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Retiring or semi-retiring earlier<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Having more income and personal freedom<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Having more interesting experiences. If your disposable income is higher due to lower taxes, you might be able to do more and still save and invest a more significant amount of money.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Of course, it doesn\u2019t work out if you can\u2019t earn a decent amount, or the cost of living is too high relative to your income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is no point in relocating to, say, Monaco or Cayman Islands for lower taxes if you are earning an average wage, unless accommodation and other benefits are included.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ultimately, people forget an important point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
How much you earn isn\u2019t that important. How much you keep is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I don\u2019t agree with everything Kiyosaki says, but he is right here (source AZ Quotes)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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Suppose you live in Manhattan earning $ 1 million from earned income before tax. In that case, you won\u2019t be able to save as much as somebody living tax and rent-free in Dubai, earning an executive salary of 600k + accommodation benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I know some people living in cheap (and low-tax) places in Eastern Europe earning 1\/10 of what many people make in London or New York, and yet they often save and invest more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is because half isn\u2019t getting taken in tax, and at least half of the other half isn\u2019t being taken in living costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What are the first steps when looking for investment?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
It depends if you mean investing by yourself or finding somebody to invest in you or your business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For personal investments I would decide if you want to do-it-yourself (DIY) or use an advisor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That takes research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is easy to focus on fees, and very easy to forget why many DIY investors fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We only have to look at the crazy 2020\u20132021 market, during Covid, to see why countless people fail when investing by themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The number of people who panicked during the 2020 crash, and then got greedy with Gamestop, Tesla, Cathy Woods\u2019 fund, and others was astonishing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This resulted in people buying high and selling low, as I explained here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Then, I would focus on what you want to achieve beyond investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Do you want to give money to your kids in a trust?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Or perhaps you are looking for income and not beating the stock market?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Once you know that, you can focus on actually having a plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To find investors for your business, if that is what you meant, I would:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Demonstrate a good track record<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Know how to pitch<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Show you have delivered growth organically before<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Network (offline and online) in communities where buying businesses is the name of the game.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
What are some key factors that contribute to the widening wealth gap in society?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
There is one factor that is the biggest by far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Long-term, asset prices beat:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Inflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Average wage increases<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Cash in the bank<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Even government bonds<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
They are just more volatile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, if you have wages going up by 0%-2% per year after inflation, cash in the bank giving you the same return as inflation and stocks giving 5%-6% per year after inflation, you can see the general trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That was the economist Piketty\u2019s central theme for his famous book Capital:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
He looked at data going back hundreds of years and summarized that asset inflation tends to outperform wage growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unless there is a global war or Great Depression, it is unlikely that those trends will reverse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Like me, you might not agree with his idea that a wealth tax is needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, his point is factually accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The more you own in assets, the better, as certain assets tend to increase above the inflation rate, wage growth and cash in the bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That isn\u2019t to mention technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some people have global opportunities, like online business owners (owners of digital assets), while others are still dependent on their local economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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What do you think of Michael Burry’s prediction about hyperinflation?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
It is a timely question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is because Burry is again in the news today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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He has placed a significant bet against the US stock market this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here is the reality:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Most of Burry\u2019s predictions have been inaccurate<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- He is correct in a small number of cases. Occasionally, he wins big, like in 2007, when he bet against the US housing market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Past predictions are no indication of future right ones<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- He predicts 1,000 of the last 2 crises. So, by definition, he will be proved right again\u2026..someday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
Some examples<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
In January, he tweeted sell. In March, he said, \u201cI was wrong to say sell.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2019, he warned against an index fund\/passive investing bubble. It hasn\u2019t happened, and there is no indication that it will do anytime soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He has warned against market crashes so many times, that other people have also seen the trend:5 Times Michael Burry\u2019s Market Crash, Other Predictions were WrongIn this article, we discuss the 5 times Michael Burryhttps:\/\/www.insidermonkey.com\/blog\/5-times-michael-burrys-market-crash-other-predictions-were-wrong-962912\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n
He is excellent at marketing and getting media attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whenever he makes a big prediction, he gets media attention; as the press can say, \u201cthe Big SHort\u2019s Michael Burry, who got the 2007 subprime crisis correct, has said\u2026\u2026\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By definition, if he had gotten any major bearish prediction right since 2007, the media wouldn\u2019t have to keep referencing his successful bet almost two decades ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Moreover, even if he is proved right this time, it won\u2019t help you beat the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A lot of academic evidence says you can\u2019t time the stock markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Keeping money in cash, waiting for a crash, doesn\u2019t work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If it did work, then why don\u2019t most amateur investors beat the stock market, when there have been numerous crashes over the years and decades?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of the major reasons it doesn\u2019t work is that those who predict market crashes tend to get the next move wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Two recent examples are the 2008 and 2020 crashes. Few predicted them. From those that did predict them, hardly anybody saw the markets recovering so quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Therefore, they would have been better off not having predicted the crash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2020 was a great example of that. The US stock markets went up by close to 20% as per this graph from dqydj – the capital value increase was around 17% which doesn\u2019t account for dividends paid eitehr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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There was no point in predicting that crash and making 0.1% in the bank (which was the average interest rate in 2020), if you missed out on 17%-20%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
I am sure that the next crash will show a similar pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Those few who predict the proper timing of the crash will think markets will go even lower, and hence would have been better off just staying on the rollercoaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This quote from Peter Lynch summarizes it (Source: AZ quotes).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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How can I become an outlier in life?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Everybody is an outlier to a certain extent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
People are individuals who have their own quirks and eccentricities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If you mean outlier financial, academic or other success, then it is a complicated question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
You need the following:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- Luck\/chance\/randomness<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
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I once watched an interview with Bill Gates and Buffett, and they both admitted that had they been born hundreds of years earlier, they wouldn’t be who they are today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Physical strength was more important than capital allocation or business skills in those days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even if they were born during the time when they needed to serve in World War 1 and 2, getting that outlier success would have been more difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The chance of death or just not being able to focus on your business is greater if you were forced to fight in a war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2.Being willing to do what others aren\u2019t<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Many people are willing to work hard. But few are willing to take massive risks consistently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What you are wiling to do that others won\u2019t, or at least your direct competitors won\u2019t, is a more sustainable unique selling point than work ethic alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
3. Playing the long game<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Outlier success is much easier if you play the wrong game because:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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- You only have to be right once<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Compounding isn’t just about compounded investment returns. The more knowledge you gain, and the more risks you take, also compounds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
That isn’t to mention hard work, skill and natural talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Basically, moderate outlier success isn\u2019t the same thing as being a one in a billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- Luck\/chance\/randomness<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
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