{"id":33756,"date":"2022-01-21T07:57:48","date_gmt":"2022-01-21T07:57:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/?p=33756"},"modified":"2025-04-11T11:28:53","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T11:28:53","slug":"how-hard-is-it-to-predict-the-exchange-rates-of-forex-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/uncategorized\/how-hard-is-it-to-predict-the-exchange-rates-of-forex-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"How hard is it to predict the exchange rates of Forex markets?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Scrivo spesso su Quora.com, dove sono lo scrittore pi\u00f9 visto in materia finanziaria, con oltre 267,5 milioni di visualizzazioni negli ultimi anni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Nelle risposte che seguono mi sono concentrato sui seguenti argomenti e problemi<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How difficult is it to predict the forex exchange rates, and beat the stock market with this kind of currency speculation? <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Has it really gotten more difficult to get on the &#8220;housing ladder&#8221; compared to in previous decades, or is it a misconception that too many people believe?  I compare big cities to smaller towns in my analysis.  <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What is the easiest way to own your own business by age 30, in a world where everybody seems to want to go down that path?  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Se volete che risponda a qualche domanda su Quora o YouTube, o se state cercando di investire, non esitate a<a href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/#contact-me\">&nbsp;contattatemi<\/a>, e-mail (advice@adamfayed.com) o utilizzare la funzione WhatsApp qui sotto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alcuni dei link e dei video a cui si fa riferimento potrebbero essere disponibili solo nelle risposte originali.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fonte di tutte le risposte: la pagina Quora di Adam Fayed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:21px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-hard-is-it-to-predict-the-exchange-rates-of-forex-markets\"><strong>How hard is it to predict the exchange rates of Forex markets?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>How many people do you know who saw the Turkish Lira collapse coming?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.fs.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-11bee355b3b1ba1f3bb123a00a03601b-lq\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve in the US reduced interest rates to 0% and did aggressive QE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many people predicted a sharp fall in the US. It actually strengthened to such an extent that some populist politicians spoke about weakening it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then Covid-19 came along. The central bank was even more aggressive in doing QE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many merchants of doom, often the same people who predicted a crisis after 2008, once again predicted dollar weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What has actually happened is that the USD has lost a bit of its strength, but is still trading at very high levels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.fs.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-f989323b4d29864d9d92d8a18845d6d8\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>With FX, you have another issue as well. Currencies don\u2019t pay much in income these days because the bank deposit rates are close to 0% globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What is more, the USD can\u2019t go up against the British Pound, at the same time as the Pound goes up against the USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, it is very hard to be up with FX trading. It is very very hard to beat the stock markets with FX trading, at least consistently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I have never met one person who has gotten rich by FX trading. I haven&#8217;t even met a person who has met a person who has gotten rich by FX trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In comparison, I have met countless people who have gotten wealthy, over time, from buying assets and holding them for the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"has-it-gotten-more-difficult-for-people-to-buy-a-first-home-over-the-decades\"><strong>Has it gotten more difficult for people to buy a first home over the decades?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>It depends where you live. Take the UK as an example:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.fs.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-bb1b88e3ac7921c2e755ddc5b5e6c67c-lq\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>House prices have outstripped earnings in London, despite the dips that have happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They have always outstripped earnings ultra long-term for a simple reason &#8211; women started joining the workforce in greater numbers in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That one-off stimulus ensured that many people could afford to take out bigger mortgages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Plenty of two-income, middle-income, households were just as well-off as a higher-income household with only one income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That stimulus won\u2019t happen again unless it becomes more normal for groups of friends to buy as a three.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What we have seen in the last twenty years, as per the graph, is that house prices outside of big cities haven\u2019t increased a lot compared to earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The big question is whether the remote working culture will change this dynamic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Already we have seen prices increase in smaller towns and cities compared to the bigger places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the graph below shows, London house prices have been weak relative to the rest of the country:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.fs.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-514cd053093e60b68ec95169b89e01e0-lq\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering the starting values of the houses in London are higher, that 10k \u201cincrease\u201d is tiny in percentage terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am not sure if this will continue, but similar trends seem to be happening in many other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, buying has become more difficult compared to the 1950s, and much more difficult in the big cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet buying in an average town, isn\u2019t any more difficult than say in 2005.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"how-can-an-individual-own-their-own-business-by-the-age-of-30-years-old\"><strong>How can an individual own their own business by the age of 30 years old?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.fs.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-960574f0cd270b88190807afd9adc55d-lq\" alt=\"\" style=\"width:347px;height:auto\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The media presents running your own business as glamorous, so it is no surprise that many people want to do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>People also have laudable reasons for going it alone, as shown by the figures below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/qph.fs.quoracdn.net\/main-qimg-3546381edc68bc92f7cb1898d289af83-lq\" alt=\"\"><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The issue is, those without experience in the domain seldom succeed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is because execution matters, not your ideas, no matter how great they are. It is more difficult to execute without experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Therefore, the easiest way to do this is<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Get a job. In any industry. Get good at it in your 20s. Spot gaps in the market, common customer complaints, and so on.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After five or more years of experience, consider going it alone, armed with that experience.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Then scale the business once you have established it.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>A 30-year-old with eight years of business experience has almost as much chance as a 50-year-old with 28 years experience in the domain, as there is declining marginal utility above a certain level of experience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, it is pretty boring. Much more boring than going out, looking for finance, with that great idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it is also the most tried-and-tested way to get business success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you really want to start a business with little or no experience, try creating a business in a new industry, or a developing country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is easier to succeed as a newcomer with fewer incumbent players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Siete afflitti dall'indecisione finanziaria? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"512\" height=\"288\" src=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Adam-Fayed-Contact_CTA3-512x288.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-117505\" style=\"width:683px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Adam-Fayed-Contact_CTA3-512x288.jpg 512w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Adam-Fayed-Contact_CTA3-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Adam-Fayed-Contact_CTA3-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Adam-Fayed-Contact_CTA3-scaled.jpg 825w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/become-adams-client\/\">Diventa mio cliente<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/good-match-quiz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fare il quiz sull'idoneit\u00e0 del cliente<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/contact\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Contatto<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Adam \u00e8 un autore riconosciuto a livello internazionale in materia finanziaria con oltre 830 milioni di visualizzazioni di risposte su Quora, un libro molto venduto su Amazon e un contributo su Forbes.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-adam-fayed wp-block-embed-adam-fayed\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"QzXmxUBhb4\"><a href=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/uncategorized\/is-the-sp-500-the-easiest-way-to-get-rich\/\">Is the S&amp;P 500 the easiest way to get rich?<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Is the S&amp;P 500 the easiest way to get rich?&#8221; &#8212; Adam Fayed\" src=\"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/uncategorized\/is-the-sp-500-the-easiest-way-to-get-rich\/embed\/#?secret=3rqNYwF058#?secret=QzXmxUBhb4\" data-secret=\"QzXmxUBhb4\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is FX speculation profitable?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":64615,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rop_custom_images_group":[],"rop_custom_messages_group":[],"rop_publish_now":"initial","rop_publish_now_accounts":{"facebook_10166176115445471_100883565069113":""},"rop_publish_now_history":[],"rop_publish_now_status":"pending","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33756"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":131978,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33756\/revisions\/131978"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/adamfayed.com\/it\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}