This article will answer numerous questions include:
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I will use some of my answers from Quora.com, where I have received over 215 million answer views in the last few years, to summarise my point.
My general point is that GDP growth and stock market performance isn’t usually connected.
So, even if you are bullish about Thailand’s future GDP growth or not, that shouldn’t influence your portfolio.
Moreover. broader diversification makes more sense, as opposed to picking a specific market like Thailand.
Source: Quora
Yes. To buy Thailand-based funds, you just need to find a broker that will accept you and gives you access to Thai-based investments.
A lot of the famous DIY brokerage houses like Interactive Brokers have Thailand funds or ETFs that partially track Thailand.
Ultimately, there is no need to hold a huge allocation to Thailand. Can just find an online platform which includes limited emerging markets exposure, no matter where you live in the world.
Or alternatively some Asia-pacific or South East Asian funds have allocations to Thailand.
Source: Quora
It is a very simple process. It depends matter if you live in India, Thailand or Spain.
All you need to do is:
a). Find a broker that can accept you given your country of residency. This is easy unless you live in Iran, Iraq and a few other countries where DIY and other brokers won’t accept you
b). Do the application forms and verify your identity
c). Invest the money and trade
You don’t need to physically have the money in the US either, to invest in US markets.
There are many Irish, UK and Canadian domiciled US funds. In fact, as a non American resident, you should be careful with investing with a US broker due to tax reasons.
Source: Quora
Yes, because:
That last point is the key. If you were accepting more volatility for higher returns, then great.
Why care about some awful years of -40% growth if the overall trend, over 30 years, is likely to be much better than the S&P and other developed markets?
The reality is different though.
Source: Quora
Above is a trading floor. It is one of thousands around the world. What am I getting at here?
We all have the same information. I lived in SE Asia (Indonesia and Cambodia) for more than a year.
I didn’t gain any knowledge living “on the ground” that couldn’t be gained from proper research.
So a lot of people get excited by stories, but all of the positives and negatives of investing in a particular sector or country, are known by the market.
So if Cambodian real estate or Thai stocks were such a buy, why isn’t Buffett, Soros and all the other institutional investors running to get a slice of the action?
This question was asked 5–6 years ago, and in that time, many SE Asian countries have seen lower growth than expected, bad currency performances apart from Thailand and sub-par stock market performance compared to the US.
There are 1,001 reasons for this. Many of them were impossible to know in advance.
Who could have known that the oil price falls in 2014–2015, would affect Indonesia and some other places so much?
Who thought 5–6 years ago that Duterte and some other populists would get elected?
Who expected Ireland, then a member of the PIGS alongside Portugal and Spain, to be growing faster than many SE Asian countries?
Too many unknown unknowns to keep predicting winners. Better to just get international diversification from MSCI World and MSCI emerging markets.
At least SE Asia isn’t that bad. Over 10 years ago, I kept hearing people telling me that Tunisian and Egyptian real estate and stocks were definitely a buy!
That included many people that regularly appear in the media.
Source: Quora
The recent performance has been weak. That does mean Chinese Stocks look undervalued.
However I would be careful. Chinese stocks are riskier than their counterparts in the US and world.
A small allocation to China from MSCI Emerging Markets is fine. No reason for a huge allocation though; 10% in emerging markets which will include 5% in China and Hong Kong.
Firstly, individual stock picking is never safe, in any country, as so many things can go wrong.
In emerging markets, there are additional corruption risks. Moreover, the Chinese market is like the American market in the 1960s…..most of the investors are retail.
Or perhaps the 1920s would be a better example. People want to make a quick buck. The market is prone to speculators mania.
With that being said, there is nothing wrong with having a 10% allocation to emerging markets, which will mean having a 3%-5% allocation to `Great China`, including Hong Kong, which is a more mature stock market.
The Chinese Market looks cheap too, but the market isn’t stupid. The markets may not be efficient, in all circumstances, but they aren’t stupid.
Chinese stocks look undervalued for a reason – the market is taking into account the higher risk.
Emerging markets property is also risky. That isn’t isn’t to mention that many Chinese innovative, like Alibaba, IPO in the US.
Most American firms also make most of their revenue overseas. So no need to invest directly in China to benefit from any growth there.
Source: Quora
This answer will save you a lot of hassles and especially worry.
The last 19 months (2019+2020) should have taught people once and for all, that to quote Buffett, “stock market forecasters exist to make fortune tellers look good”.
Let’s have a rundown:
The point is I don’t know one person, even one, that predicted all of these 5 things.
I don’t even know a person that predicted 3 out of 5 correctly.
If we go back further to how shocked most people were when markets went up strongly after Trump’s election, and we see the same pattern.
That pattern is many people get 1 prediction right. Plenty get 2 right.
Some even have a 50% strike rate at best. I am yet to meet even one person that can outsmart the market for a very long period of time.
So what can the average investor do?
Stay calm. Buy and hold + rebalance. Be excited by any market falls but don’t wait for them by having loads of cash.
Listen to sensible advice and not the news media. Be ultra long-term. If you do all of those things you will be fine.
It isn’t like there is much of an alternative with cash paying even less than before and markets have always rewarded people who are patient.
$10,000 in the S&P500 in 1945 would be worth about $50m today. $10,000 in 1990 would be worth about $120,000 today. Even adjusted for inflation these are huge figures.
People get into trouble when they try to outsmart the market and be too smart for their own good.
And as an aside, there is no clear correlation between GDP growth and stock market performance.
In 2018, the US reported its best GDP figures for a year, but the stock market’s performance was worse than in 2017 and 2020.
Likewise, China had good GDP growth from 2006, but awful stock market performance.
Often in the short-term, the market is driven by sentiment and speculators – speculators speculating on what other speculators are doing and saying to quote Vanguard’s Founder Jack Bogle.
The long-term investor needs to see through the noise. Invest today for the long-term and you will be fine.
Source: Quora
Depends. I would make an obvious point. An investor can only make a decision based on the information he or she has available at the time.
Look at China’s property market. Has been great for many investors, but who could have predicted that the Chinese Government would stimulate housing after the financial crisis?
Housing was going up steadily in China. Then suddenly after the Chinese Government became worried about exports to the West, they wanted to stimulate consumer demand, so they.
Housing in Cambodia has the following risks:
I would stick to international investments which have had a track record of 200 years of success, like the US market.
Investing 5% of your net assets in a home, rather than an investment, isn’t as risky obviously.
Further Reading
In the article below I answered the folllowing questions:
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