Will Bitcoin hit 200k by 2022?

I often write on Quora.com, where I am the most viewed writer on financial matters, with over 429.4 million views in recent years.

In the answers below I focused on the following topics and issues:

• Will Bitcoin hit 200k by 2022?
• Why do you think some people still want to live in the UK?

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Source for all answers – Adam Fayed’s Quora page.

Will Bitcoin hit 200k by 2022?

Nobody knows.

Bitcoin is only worth what somebody coming after you is willing to pay due to the lack of dividend or yield, so why can’t it go to $2 or 200k?

That is the point; it is a speculative asset. That said, it seems highly unlikely that it will be 10x to 200k.

The main reasons are

1. Interest rates are rising, and some countries are going into a recession. Bitcoin has never experienced a global recession before.
2. Unlike “buy and hold” stock and real estate investors, many people got into Bitcoin to get rich quick. Only a tiny percentage of the market is institutional investors and people who have bought and held for years. Many of these people might get fed up.
3. Unlike the promise to be an uncorrelated asset, Bitcoin has recently been partly correlated to the Nasdaq. When the Nasdaq rises, Bitcoin increases too, and vice versa. In the long-term, I wouldn’t bet against the Nasdaq, but the next year or two could be volatile for technology stocks.
4. There is increasing government scrutiny, and many could invent their own digital currencies. If they come in with a digital Pound, USD or Euro, that could encourage people to give in their private coins. In other words, if they were offered a 5% yield linked to the digital USD in the future, that could persuade some people to give up private coins.
5. In the history of technology, most firms have gone to zero. That was the case with most tech stocks. The Nasdaq more than recovered from the 2000 crash and had a great 2000-2021 period; despite 14 years of stagnation after the crash, but most tech stocks went to zero. Even if private coins succeed (and that is a big if), it could become a “winner takes all” situation where a few coins take most of the market share. Even some advocates of Bitcoin and Ether have told me that they expect to trade in their currencies “when something better comes along from a technology and utility point of view.”

Let’s not forget that in the last “Crypto winter”, from 2013 until 2018, very few people owned any coins.

So, it was a bear market in a small market. Now it is a bigger market. Many people bought at 40,000-60,000, meaning it could take longer to recover.

Considering how young and impatient some Bitcoin investors were to see high returns, how many will keep the faith if the price doesn’t hit break-even point for 5-10 years, especially with no dividend to fall back on?

Why do you think some people still want to live in the UK?

For British people, the main reason is familiarity; no matter where I go and live, that is one similarity I see globally.

Unless things get terrible in a country, most people want to visit other countries, rather than live in them for extended periods, because it means more comfortable and familiar.

For British people who have returned from overseas, homesickness might play a role, but more significant issues are:

1. Healthcare and education. There are many issues with the NHS system, but some people can’t afford private medical care overseas. As for schools, in some countries, the choice is between expensive international schools and awful state schools.
2. Family. Ageing and ill parents, and being close to other family members and sometimes friends. Many people also “come back for the children”, especially if they feel the kids will get discriminated against overseas.
3. Space. For British people who have lived in places such as Hong Kong and Singapore, the attraction is to return to a smaller home in the UK and enjoy more space.
4. A sense of community. This one is more likely to affect people who haven’t gotten used to life overseas.

For non-British people, tolerance can be a big thing. I have lost count of the gay people who has said that some parts of the UK are more tolerant than anywhere they have experienced.

So, there are many reasons to live in the UK, but also other huge negatives, such as the vast taxes, divisive political environment and issues coming up soon, such as the ageing population, which could further push up taxes.

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Adam is an internationally recognised author on financial matters with over 830million answer views on Quora, a widely sold book on Amazon, and a contributor on Forbes.