In this post, we’ll delve into what a Trump win means especially for American expats who live abroad.
We’ll specifically tackle the following points:
- What are the chances of a Trump victory?
- What would a Trump win mean for US expats abroad?
- What does a Trump win mean for markets?
You need to understand how a Trump administration can impact your money in several ways.
Although investors are cautiously hopeful overall, political developments and economic trends have a significant impact on their sentiments as the election draws near.
If you are looking to invest as an expat or high-net-worth individual, which is what I specialize in, you can email me (advice@adamfayed.com) or WhatsApp (+44-7393-450-837).
This includes if you are looking for alternatives or a second opinion.
Some of the facts might change from the time of writing, and nothing written here is formal advice.
For updated guidance, please contact me.
What are the chances of a Trump victory?
Recent figures indicate that he has a good chance of winning the next presidential election.
According to late October estimates, Trump’s chances of victory are 54% to 66%. Nevada had high early voting turnout as well.
Per reports, Trump is doing well in crucial swing states like Georgia and Arizona. An Electoral College victory depends on winning these states.
However, “the swing states have swayed,” according to Tri-County Independent, citing polls and odds.
The most recent polls in Pennsylvania shifted in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris with Election Day just under a week away. Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground state.
Trump is leading in a number of swing states, according to recent polls, which might result in electoral success should he lose the popular vote.
Do note that odds and surveys are subject to change at any time.
What a Trump presidency will look like
Below is a concise explanation or short list of Trump policies that affect Americans overseas and markets.
What would a Trump win mean for US expats living abroad?
Trump is reportedly proposing that Americans who live abroad no longer pay US income taxes.
Expatriates are currently required to submit tax returns with the IRS whatever their residency status and may be subject to double taxation in their host countries.
Trump’s proposal could streamline expat tax requirements and might also might increase the financial appeal of living overseas for many Americans if it is put into effect.
However, it’s unclear from his campaign statements how exactly he plans to deal with double taxation.
Trump’s tax cuts are intended to help every income bracket, albeit research indicates that the biggest gains would go to the most affluent Americans.
Concerns about his ideas and their impact on democracy and society at large have led many in the US to consider relocating permanently overseas. A noteworthy increase in inquiries about moving to EU nations has resulted from the desire of many to improve living conditions.
Because of things like shootings and political divide, some foreigners feel more secure and at home in their new nations vs the US.
A Trump administration could exacerbate these sentiments and encourage even more Americans to seek stability elsewhere.
Trump’s administration might enact tougher immigration laws that would make it more difficult for Americans to move overseas or affect their treatment if they do. So, seeking citizenship or residency in other nations may be quite hard.
What does a Trump win mean for markets?
According to some analysts, a Trump presidency may delay global expansion, which might have an indirect effect on US expats by influencing employment prospects and the state of the economy in the nations where they reside.
Americans living abroad may feel uneasy about this, particularly if they work in foreign markets.
Tax-sensitive industries like communication services stand to gain the most from Trump’s proposal to lower the corporate tax rate to 15% from 21%, which could increase company earnings by about 4%.
His proposals for universal tariffs, though, have drawn criticism for potentially hurting consumer spending and profitability. It could also potentially lower the S&P 500 by 10% in 2025, reports said.
Because of the proposed tariffs, a Trump administration might result in higher inflation, which might compel the Fed to hike interest rates.
His erratic communication style has historically caused market volatility and impact stock prices, especially the way in which he uses social media.
Yields on bonds have already increased owing to speculation about a possible Trump victory, signaling expectations for tighter monetary policy.
The US dollar may also appreciate under his win, as interest rates and inflation forecasts rise.
Deregulation and tax reductions could help some industries if he wins, but there are also concerns related to potential trade disputes.
When investors assess how his policies will affect the markets in the long run, they may encounter more uncertainty.
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