Will ARKK Recover

Will ARKK Recover

Are you one of the investors asking, “Will ARKK recover?” Read on to learn if it is time to buy ARKK and what stocks can help it recover.

One effective strategy for trading the ARKK ETF is to purchase the momentum. It is possible that the rally has commenced earlier than anticipated, as of the year 2023.

The renowned investment manager experienced a significant decline in the value of her flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) between early 2021 and the end of last year, with a drop of up to 80%.

However, the fund has shown signs of recovery in early 2023 and has since increased by almost 50% year-to-date.

It appears that ARKK is experiencing positive effects from what may be the conclusion of a prolonged period of rampant inflation and continuous interest rate increases.

It is recommended to adopt a systematic approach while trading the ETF instead of relying on the assumption that the fund will maintain its upward trajectory.

If you want to invest as an expat or high-net-worth individual, which is what I specialize in, you can email me (advice@adamfayed.com) or use WhatsApp (+44-7393-450-837).

Will ARKK Recover: ARKK Performance In 2022

The previous year witnessed a substantial change in investor mood toward new technologies, which was a positive indication for the industry.

The Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK), which experienced a drop of roughly 68 percent in 2022, is the best indication of innovation equities that there is.

Will ARKK Recover
A man showing a chart.

It was a terrible year for growth investors, and there was no Santa Claus rally to end the year, so a few companies that specialize in disruptive innovation found a way to fall even farther in the last weeks of what had been a terrible year.

It is not known when unprofitable inventors would reach their ultimate lowest point; but, a reversal might be on the horizon sometime around the year 2023.

ARKK is now selling at a price that is over eighty percent lower than what it was priced at when it reached its all-time high. It’s probable that ARKK is still a ways off from making a turn for the better despite the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to combat inflation by raising interest rates. 

There is no question that the fate of ARKK and other creative technology stocks seems to still be primarily connected to the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Are Unprofitable Disruptive Innovators Oversold And Undervalued?

Putting a price on the shares of a firm that does not see itself turning a profit in the very near future is, to tell you the truth, one of the most challenging things to accomplish.

Stocks that have had a price decline of 80–90% but are still trading over their fair value threshold due to oversold conditions are not always considered to be inexpensive.

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it makes it that much more difficult to get money because of the increased competition for available funds.

When it comes to the businesses that they are looking to store away in their portfolios, investors who are focused on growth will need to exercise a higher level of discrimination in the years to come.

If a forward-thinking firm is going to have to keep investing a significant amount of money into its future, then it is in the best interest of investors for the company to continue robust growth while also making progress toward reducing its losses.

Recently, growth rates have been under pressure as a consequence of headwinds that already have begun to push their way into financial results.

This is due to the fact that headwinds have already begun to force their way into financial results.

The primary question that has to be answered is how much of the recent slowdown in growth can be attributable to circumstances brought on by the temporary economic downturn, and how much can be related to the natural process of organizations becoming older.

The growth rates of hyper-growth enterprises often undergo a considerable decrease once the company reaches its maturity stage.

The most important factors that have led to a slowdown in growth are the intensification of competition and the lack of a durable competitive edge. Both of these factors have the potential to “reset” values in a direction that is unfavorable.

After the economic downturn has run its course, it is quite unlikely that many of the assets included within the ARK ETFs would be able to reacclimate their growth rates to pre-recession levels by the year 2021.

Investor favorites like Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM) have lost 88 percent of their value. It is quite doubtful that it will return in light of the economic openness that occurred as a result of COVID-19 and the development in popularity of other forms of video-conferencing.

ZM stock will continue to be a top holding (representing just under 10% of the flagship ARKK ETF) far into 2023, in spite of the catastrophic decline it has experienced.

It is quite clear that Cathie Wood has not abandoned her faith in the company. However, due to the fact that so many competitors are concentrating their efforts on capitalizing on the work-from-home (WFH) trend, the issue of whether or not businesses such as Zoom are able to innovate their way back to growth remains unanswered.

In the same vein as a large number of other investors who are selective, there are reasons to continue to be suspicious.

Will ARKK Recover: Should You Invest in ARKK Now?

ARKK is the primary fund of the investment firm ARK Invest. The ARKK ETF is centered around companies that demonstrate “disruptive innovation,” which refers to the introduction of a new technologically-driven product or service that has the potential to revolutionize the way the world operates.

In 2020, the ARK Innovation ETF outperformed the Nasdaq with an impressive surge of over 152%, while the Nasdaq returned 43.6%.

The ARKK ETF exhibited a significant underperformance in 2021 as compared to the Nasdaq, with a decline of 24% in contrast to the Nasdaq’s 21.4% growth.

The ARKK ETF’s underperformance persisted in 2022, as it experienced a significant decline of 67%, in contrast to the Nasdaq’s 33.1% annual loss. As of May 10th, 2023, the ARKK exchange-traded fund has experienced a notable recovery, with a 24.2% increase in value.

Given that the ARKK ETF is currently trading at a 30% discount from its 52-week high, it may not be advisable to purchase the ETF at this time.

It is advisable to exercise patience and wait for the ETF to cease its current downward trend. Once it forms a new base and breaks out past a suitable buy point, it would be an opportune time to make a purchase. On May 26, the ARKK ETF experienced a 2.7% increase.

ARK Investment Management offers a range of ETFs that cater to various investment themes. These include the Fintech Innovation (ARKF), Autonomous Technology & Robotics (ARKQ), Genomic Revolution (ARKG), Next Generation Internet (ARKW), and the newly launched Space Exploration and Innovation (ARKX) ETFs.

When Is The Perfect Time To Buy ARKK?

Adopting a buy-and-hold approach without conducting thorough research and analysis may not yield optimal results in the stock market.

It is possible that the ETF with a high concentration of technology stocks may continue to experience losses for several months. One possible approach to buying the dip is to wait for market signals that indicate a favorable time to make a purchase.

One effective strategy for trading stocks is to time your purchases when the price is above the 50-day moving average. Conversely, it can be wise to sell your shares when the price falls below the trend line.

This approach can help you make informed decisions about when to buy and sell, potentially maximizing your returns and minimizing your losses.

It is important to note that the implementation of a moving average strategy alone does not guarantee universal success for all investors in every scenario.

The most effective approach for trading assets that tend to follow momentum is to engage in buying and selling activities based on momentum.

It is a well-established phenomenon that speculative bubbles tend to follow a pattern of (1) inflating due to irrational exuberance, (2) experiencing an overcorrection, and (3) eventually rebounding and reaching even higher levels.

The phenomenon observed with ARK Innovation is reminiscent of what occurred with technology stocks from the 1990s to the mid-2000s.

Will ARKK Recover: Reasons To Be Optimistic In 2023

The upcoming year of 2023 is expected to witness a robust lineup of technology Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), raising the prospect of a much-needed boost for innovative technology.

These new IPOs are anticipated to generate enthusiasm for emerging technological trends that have the potential to revolutionize the world.

Will ARKK Recover
An investor looking at stock prices.

Investors who have the ability to select long-term winners can still achieve remarkable returns through investing in growth stocks. When the rates are higher, the risks or potential losses also increase.

It is evident that in 2022, tech investors experienced a significant setback and chose to withdraw their investments. Despite the challenges faced, significant progress was made in the field of technology, with several noteworthy advancements being achieved.

Innovation in the tech industry is showing no signs of slowing down, as evidenced by the groundbreaking projects of OpenAI such as Dall-E and ChatGPT, as well as Meta Platforms’ ongoing investments in the hardware and software that will drive the metaverse.

Despite the challenges posed by a weakening macro environment and stricter monetary policies, these companies remain committed to pushing the boundaries of what is possible in the tech world.

Despite the challenging year for ARKK and other innovative growth stocks, Cathie Wood’s popularity has not been impacted as severely as one might anticipate. It appears that Wood is not yet prepared to cease operations.

She has been actively investing in the stock market by purchasing stocks such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) during periods of market decline.

Wood’s bold investments have the potential to magnify a potential resurgence in the technology sector, should one occur in 2023. It is possible that ARKK’s decline could worsen if innovation continues to face challenges. Investing in ARKK at present seems to be a challenging task as the feeling of decline is persisting even in the new year.

Wood is of the opinion that in the long run, stocks related to innovative companies will emerge as the winners.

Although ARKK and other innovation stocks are likely to recover eventually, the primary concern is the possibility of another significant drop in value before the anticipated rebound occurs.

Investors are advised to exercise caution and thoroughly evaluate the potential risks before making a decision that goes against the prevailing market trend. Utilizing a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy appears to be the most sensible and cautious approach.

The Buying Momentum Is Working

Investing is inherently unpredictable and there are no guarantees of success. If one were to follow the aforementioned strategy, they would have purchased ARKK in March 2022 and subsequently sold the same shares at a minor loss within a few days.

If ARKK manages to rebound and reach its previous peak levels, purchasing during the upward trend could prove to be a profitable move for the investor. Achieving success in any endeavor primarily depends on one’s ability to remain patient and diligent.

It appears that Cathie Wood and ARKK are poised for a year of recovery in 2023. Investors who implemented the moving-average strategy in 2022 would have been able to avoid significant losses while still being able to participate in roughly two-thirds of the market’s rally in 2023.

It is worth noting that if an individual had invested $1,000 13 months ago and traded according to the moving average rules, the investment would have yielded a return that is slightly less than the original investment.

In contrast, those who were determined to hold onto their investments regardless of market conditions would have experienced a significant loss of 53%. 

The future trajectory of ARKK is uncertain and difficult to predict. In my opinion, utilizing the aforementioned strategy to trade the ETF has the potential to be a highly effective method for capitalizing on the potential for market growth while simultaneously minimizing the potential for losses.

Will ARKK Recover: Two Stocks That Can Help ARKK

The performance of Cathie Wood’s stocks and her ARK funds has been suboptimal over the last year. ARKK, which is Wood’s primary investment vehicle, is currently experiencing a decline of approximately 78% from its peak in early 2021.

The components have decreased by comparable amounts. Despite the potential lack of respite in the upcoming year of 2023, I believe that it may be worthwhile to explore distinctive opportunities by examining the aftermath of ARK.

Wood maintains a positive outlook on the innovation trade in the long run, despite the current discomfort.

Additionally, she has demonstrated a willingness to act on her convictions by consistently purchasing stocks during market downturns. Cathie Wood expressed her belief that innovation stocks will ultimately emerge victorious.

This section will focus on two holdings of ARKK, namely EXAS and U. The market is expected to remain unstable and may not be suitable for investors who prefer low-risk investments due to its unpredictable nature. Some investors may consider it beneficial to keep an eye on these promising opportunities.

Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS)

The ARKK ETF’s largest holding currently is Exact Sciences, with a weighting of 9.45%. The company specializing in molecular diagnostics is considered to be one of the most fascinating and pioneering firms included in the ARKK portfolio.

The company responsible for developing the widely-used Cologuard screening test utilizes advanced biotechnology to accurately identify the presence of cancer.

According to a report by the market research firm MarketsandMarkets Research, the cancer diagnostics market is projected to reach $26.6 billion by 2026.

The market in question is quite substantial, and it appears that Exact has the potential to capture a significant portion of it in the coming years.

The improvement in Exact’s performance could potentially lead to a significant increase in its stock value, which has been negatively impacted by rising interest rates and unfavorable economic conditions.

Wood has identified Exact as a promising contender that has the potential to make a significant impact and potentially reach new heights.

During its lowest point, the stock experienced a decline of over 80% from its highest value. In recent times, the stock has gained significant momentum, registering a remarkable surge of over 125% since reaching its lowest point in October 2022.

The company has achieved EBITDA profitability in the recent past. Given the vast size of the market and the advanced technological capabilities at its disposal, Exact Sciences has the potential to emerge as a key holding in ARK’s portfolio, potentially contributing to a significant rebound in the years ahead.

As of the time of writing, the EXAS stock is trading at a price-to-sales ratio of 5.9, which is significantly lower than its five-year average of 13.8.

The cost for one of the most fascinating innovators out there is not exorbitant. It is possible that the recent positive surprise in quarterly earnings may be indicative of future positive performance.

What Is The Analyst Consensus On The Potential Of EXAS Stock As A Viable Investment Option?

The financial industry has expressed a favorable view of the company, with eight analysts recommending a Buy rating, five suggesting a Hold rating, and none recommending a Sell rating. This results in a Moderate Buy consensus rating.

The projected average stock price target for EXAS is $60.31, indicating a potential decrease of 8.85%. It is evident that analysts should consider upgrading their price targets following the recent surge.

Unity Software (NASDAQ:U)

Unity Software is a relatively smaller holding in the ARK basket, but it is still considered innovative. It currently holds a 3.6% weighting. Gamers are likely to be acquainted with Unity, the platform responsible for powering numerous popular games.

Unity, the firm in question, has a unique vantage point in the gaming industry. However, with the emergence of virtual and augmented reality technologies, the potential market for Unity’s products may be significantly greater than previously anticipated.

Will ARKK Recover
A man inside a stock exchange.

The primary concern is whether Unity has the ability to dominate the majority of this particular market. Although uncertain, even a small increase in value could potentially yield significant profits for Unity while it remains undervalued.

The stock has experienced a significant decline of nearly 87% from its peak, positioning it as one of the most substantial underperformers in the field of innovation.

The recent announcement of 284 layoffs by the company has raised concerns about how it can maintain its competitive advantage in an environment of rising interest rates.

During an interview with The Wall Street Journal, management acknowledged the presence of project “overlap”. It is clear that there is an opportunity for Unity and other technology companies that hired excessively during the pandemic to enhance their efficiency and productivity.

There are reasons to believe that the extent of the damage to U stock has been exaggerated and is not reflective of its true value. Based on the impressive innovation and growth exhibited by the company (with a revenue growth of approximately 24% in the past year), the current sales multiple of 9.3 appears to be unreasonably low and unsustainable.

What Is The Analyst Consensus On The Potential Of U Stock As A Viable Investment Option?

Unity Software has garnered a Moderate Buy consensus rating from Wall Street, which is based on a total of thirteen ratings consisting of eight Buys, four Holds, and one Sell.

This indicates that while there is some level of caution, there is also a sense of optimism surrounding the company. Based on the average U stock price target of $37.54, it appears that there is a potential upside of 29.9% from the current trading levels.

Should You Buy EXAS And U?

Among the various stocks in the ARKK portfolio, the Exact Sciences and Unity Software are particularly promising at their current price levels. This is due to their strong potential for growth when compared to their current valuations.

The two names are highly unpredictable and prone to sudden fluctuations in either direction. Investors need to exercise additional caution and thoroughness in their research and analysis.

Will ARKK Recover: Other Stocks To Buy And Watch

Some of the stocks that Cathie Wood recommends buying and keeping an eye on are Roku, Block, Tesla, and Zoom Video.

Zoom Video Stock

Zoom Video is a prominent provider of contemporary video communication solutions for businesses. Their cloud-based platform offers a range of features including video and audio conferencing, chat functionality, and webinars.

These services can be accessed across various devices such as mobile phones, desktop computers, and conference rooms.

Zoom announced on May 22 that its earnings for the April quarter exceeded expectations. However, investors in ZM stock were concerned about the declining performance of its enterprise business.

The company’s first-quarter earnings for Zoom increased by 13% to $1.16 per adjusted share due to cost-cutting measures. The revenue has experienced a 3% increase, reaching a total of $1.105 billion. In the previous year, Zoom’s earnings per share were $1.03, with sales amounting to $1.074 billion.

The stock price of Zoom experienced a 4% increase on May 26. The current value of shares is approximately half of their highest value recorded in the past 52 weeks.

Tesla Stock

On May 25, Tesla’s stock experienced a 0.9% increase, which put an end to its two-day decline. Currently, the shares are experiencing a level of support near their 50-day line while they construct a cup base.

The buy point for this base is at 207.89 at the moment. Be vigilant for a leveraged opportunity to provide a more affordable entrance. On May 25, the shares concluded trading at a 41% decrease from their highest value over the past 52 weeks.

On May 26, the TSLA stock showed a positive trend by increasing 6.9% from the previous day’s gains. On the evening of May 25, Tesla and Ford made a joint announcement that they have reached an agreement to provide access to Tesla’s network of superchargers to Ford’s electric vehicle customers.

Block Stock

Block is a prominent player in the realm of digital payments and cryptocurrency. The current stock price is trading at a significant discount of approximately 50% from its highest price point in the past 52 weeks.

Additionally, it is currently trading below the 200-day moving average, which is a long-term trend indicator.

As per the IBD Stock Checkup analysis, the Block stock exhibits a Composite Rating of 58 out of a possible 99, indicating its performance in terms of fundamental and technical factors.

The IBD Composite Rating is a useful tool for investors to assess the overall quality of a stock’s fundamental and technical metrics in a straightforward manner.

Square’s parent company, Block, announced their first-quarter earnings and revenue on May 4, which exceeded the expectations of Wall Street analysts.

Despite exceeding expectations in terms of gross profit, SQ stock did not experience any positive impact due to the ongoing controversy surrounding its consumer Cash App business.

On May 26, there was a 1.2% increase in the value of Block stock.

Roku Stock

The current trading price of Roku stock is approximately 50% lower than its highest value in the past 52 weeks. This decline has been significant and has persisted for the past 22 months.

The company based in San Jose, California announced on April 26th that it had acquired 1.6 million new active accounts during the March quarter, resulting in a total of 71.6 million accounts. During the period, it was anticipated by analysts that there would be an addition of 1.14 million new users.

In Q1, Roku reported a loss of $1.38 per share on revenue of $741 million. According to a survey conducted by FactSet, it was anticipated that Roku would incur a loss of $1.47 per share while generating $708 million in revenue.

During the corresponding period of the previous year, Roku incurred a loss of 19 cents per share while generating $734 million in revenue.

On May 26, there was a 2.7% increase in the value of ROKU shares.

Pained by financial indecision? Want to invest with Adam?

Adam is an internationally recognised author on financial matters, with over 669.2 million answer views on Quora.com, a widely sold book on Amazon, and a contributor on Forbes.

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